The daily Euribor starts the year with timid increases, will it soon return to positive values?

Published on January 12th 2018

The Euribor, the index to which most mortgages are referenced, has started the year with a slight rebound.

The monthly average stood at -0.186% compared to -0.190% at the end of December. Although mortgages for now will not notice the increase in their quotas to be only four cents. year. Antonio Sales, analyst at XTB, explains that this is due to "simply speculative movements of the market, but nothing out of their ordinary oscillations" so the mortgaged will continue to finance their mortgage at low cost.

The Euribor, which is a reflection of the operations of banks in the interbank market, will be among the first to reflect the end of the expansionary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) but it is still early for the rebound to be sustained over time. and relevant. Recall that the ECB will reduce the volume of purchases to 30,000 million euros, but will continue to maintain them until at least September of this year. Thus, Sales believes that it is "likely that we will see increases as the year progresses due mainly to possible changes in monetary policy by the ECB".

The next step, the rate increase, will still take a while. Experts believe that the first movements in this direction will not be seen until the first half of 2019 and these will be gradual. That is to say, Mario Draghi would begin raising the interest rates a quarter of a point, up to 0.25% and would wait to see its effects.